01 Factual Verdict
02 Outcome Split By League
Home wins are compared against draws and away wins for each competition.
03 Home Points Edge With 95% CI
Positive values indicate home teams earn more points per match than away teams.
04 Season Trendlines
Trajectory of home points edge per season across all leagues in the dataset window.
05 Goal Differential Shape
Heatmap of match share by goal-difference bucket, clipped between -5 and +5 goals.
06 Club Fortress Effect
Home points per match versus away points per match, with point-edge encoded by color.
| Club | Home PPM | Away PPM | Edge | Matches |
|---|
07 Method Notes
- Source: football-data.co.uk season CSVs (Europe) +
new/BRA.csv(Brazil). - Core metric: home points edge per match = mean(home points - away points).
- Decisive-match share tests compare home-win share vs a 50/50 null among non-draw matches.
- Observational evidence only; mechanisms (travel load, officiating pressure) are not isolated.